Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the importance of Harris’ running mate decision

NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter join Amna Nawaz to discuss the latest political news, including the benefits of Kamala Harris’ running mate options, the latest campaign fundraising reports and Donald Trump’s struggle to find a message against his new opponent.
Amna Nawaz:
Well, the 2024 race for the White House has been upended in the last few weeks, even as we wait for the next big decision, the announcement of Kamala Harris’ running mate.
For a look at the race, we turn now to our Politics Monday team. That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter, and Tamara Keith of NPR.
Great to see you both.
Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:
Hello.
Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:
Thank you.
Amna Nawaz:
So, we know Vice President Harris is expected to appear with her running mate tomorrow night. We don’t yet know who that will be, but we will know by then. As you both know, the top contenders are reportedly these three men, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.
That announcement is going to come in this context, though. When you take a look at the latest CBS News polling, it shows essentially a statistical tie nationally and in battleground states between Vice President Harris and former President Trump. You see those numbers there.
So, Amy, when you look at those numbers and who she’s considering, could the vice presidential pick move those numbers, have an impact on the race?
Amy Walter:
Right. I mean, I think it’s unlikely that it does much. The vice president — we talk a lot about the vice presidential pick. It’s an important moment, especially for a new candidate. I know she’s not new. She’s been the vice president, but we haven’t seen her as a presidential nominee.
So this will be her very first executive action. How does she make this decision, I think, becomes important. The second thing it allows her to do is to have another good week, if everything goes right. If the rollout goes well — this is the do-no-harm theory of the case with a pick — and that she is able to own another week of the media coverage.
And then that transitions directly into the DNC. So that would be three weeks of the Harris campaign being able to set the terms of the debate and the narrative, where what she has to choose between of those three, it seems like, progressives are very, very much pushing for the governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz.
The more progressive, moderate wing of the Democratic Party is saying, you got to go with somebody like Shapiro, who will help to set the narrative for you. If the case that the Trump campaign is making is, Kamala Harris is too liberal…
Amna Nawaz:
Yes.
Amy Walter:
… getting somebody who isn’t the choice of progressives is a way to get those swing voters.
Amna Nawaz:
Well, Tam, let’s take a look at those three top contenders once more. Guys, let’s put that graphic up for just a moment here.
When you look at these men, Tam, what would each of them bring to a potential Harris ticket? What does it show that she is prioritizing in her pick here?
Tamara Keith:
What our reporting tells us is that she is prioritizing having someone on her team who would be a governing partner, someone who she can work with, someone who she has chemistry with.
None of these are people who she has longstanding relationships with. So she is, as Amy said and as I said last week, looking for someone who will do no harm, who will be safe, and in theory will be somebody who can get out and campaign and drive a mess.
And what we have seen over the last week is sort of the virtual audition of all three of these men going out and doing cable hits. Tim Walz, in some ways, I guess, wins the cable audition, because he has used this term weird to describe J.D. Vance and former President Trump, and it has stuck. And now everyone is calling them weird.
And then they are responding saying, no, I’m not weird, you’re weird. And people are giving Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, former congressman, credit for that.
Amna Nawaz:
Amy, I want to return to the polls and what they tell us for just a moment here, because the race is still tied even as the ticket has changed.
Amy Walter:
Yes.
Amna Nawaz:
You saw this surge in financial support for Harris after she moved to the top of the ticket. The campaign fund-raising for July showed Harris campaign now has over $300 million, Trump campaign now has about $140 million.
We didn’t necessarily see a similar surge in polling. Does that surprise you?
Amy Walter:
Well, can I make an argument?
(Crosstalk)
Amna Nawaz:
Which is why I put it to you.
Amy Walter:
Which is, in this day and age, in our very calcified, polarized era, a surge is moving a race from one where Trump was up by three to one where Harris is now up, let’s say, one point or tied.
That’s a four-point shift in two weeks. That’s a big, big deal. And that matters a lot. So I think what we have seen now is the race has shifted from one where Trump was ahead and it was his race to lose to one where, oh, this race is actually really a toss-up now.
Now, where it isn’t is where we were in 2020 at this time, where Biden was up in the polling, at least, by eight points or something, and he ended up winning by four. So this is much closer than it was in 2020, but a heck of a lot better than where we were.
The other thing about the money I think that’s important is that Democrats have had a money lead for a long time and they have spent it on Biden, and it didn’t do anything. So now Harris and her campaign have an opportunity to, in many ways, say the same things, although it’s different. She gets to be sort of a change candidate that Biden wasn’t.
But you can see what she talks about in her very first ad. She’s a prosecutor. Trump’s taking us backward. We’re never going back. And to Tam’s point about what you want for a V.P., I think the candidate that can also deliver that message with her and sound credible is going to be really important.
Amna Nawaz:
Tam, I want to ask you about what we’re hearing about the Harris campaign from the Trump/Vance campaign. They were campaigning in Georgia this past week. And it feels like they are struggling to coalesce around a strategy around her.
We have seen Republicans like Senator Lindsey Graham say, focus on her record and what she did not do. Mr. Trump goes off-script, veers into racist questioning of her racial and ethnic identity. What’s the impact of that? I mean, is there a strategy to combat the ticket?
Tamara Keith:
And is that really off-script or is that where this was going all along? And I guess we will never know for sure.
But the cycle of people saying, oh, Trump, don’t tweet so much, oh, Trump, just watch your mouth and everything will be great, his supporters have said that every day that he has been on the political scene. So I think that they really are, though, in the throwing spaghetti at the wall phase of this and trying to figure out what actually sticks to Harris.
They have tried San Francisco liberal. I assume they will try a lot more of that in the days and weeks to come. They have tried to say that she was too tough a prosecutor, not tough enough of a prosecutor, that she is a chameleon, that she doesn’t know her racial identity, that she’s different — a different person to different people.
And Trump has tried various things from crazy to low-I.Q., a lot of it sort of shrouded in familiar tropes for female candidates and for candidates of color in this country. What sticks? Who knows? But they are trying different messages.
He spent a big part of his rally on Saturday complaining about the crowd size, complaining that he wasn’t allowed to have as many people into the arena that was the same arena where she had an event days earlier…
Amna Nawaz:
Yes.
Tamara Keith:
… complaining about the crowd size, then complaining that she had a rapper. And so really that wasn’t — it isn’t representative. They were there for the rapper, not for her.
(Crosstalk)
Tamara Keith:
So he’s really trying everything. Eventually, they will coalesce around something.
Amna Nawaz:
Before I let you go, Amy, I have to ask you, because you talk so much about it, about the impact of a third-party candidate right now. RFK Jr. was polling in double digits at one point. Latest CBS News poll says he’s showing at — polling, rather, at 2 percent.
And there’s been a series of weird headlines, the only way to put it, the brain worm, the dead bear cub in Central Park.
Amy Walter:
Yes. Yes.
Amna Nawaz:
Is there still an impact he could have on this election?
Amy Walter:
Sure. I mean, in these battleground states that are going to be decided by two or three points, absolutely, he can siphon some votes away.
What’s interesting is his drop is also coinciding with Harris’ rise. So I think there were a bunch of people sitting in, parked in the campaign of RFK Jr. who were not never-Trump voters, but were interested in basically sending a message saying, I’m not going to vote for Trump, I’m not really happy about Biden.
Also, let’s be clear. Besides the headlines, RFK Jr. hasn’t really done anything. He hasn’t run any ads. He hasn’t done campaigning. So it’s not that surprising to see his drop.
Amna Nawaz:
Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, always great to see you both. Thank you.
Amy Walter:
Good to see you.
Tamara Keith:
You’re welcome.